Official League Prediction

It's time for my final prediction.  Due to bad Oregon weather and six teams fleeing the state during spring break, I've only seen three teams - Marist and Sheldon once each, and North Eugene twice.  I'm not changing my groupings of teams, but I'm changing the final order a little bit.

Top three group alpha order:  Marist, North Eugene, Thurston - throw a blanket over them.  It's a three way race to the title for these teams.  But here is how they will finish (hopefully, blogs are editable in two months).

1.  Marist:  Marist bats are hot early.  Offense: I saw the Spartans in a losing cause against North Medford. The Spartans were hitting the ball hard and on the button, but right to people.  I left between games to dry off my camera and didn't come back to watch Marist hammer three homers (Silver, Swindling and Inuoye)  against the Tornado. At least 8 players have tripled!  

Pitching:  I'm putting a lot of pressure on seniors Zach Eyster and Kevin Haskin, but they have started strong and combined with the Marist bats, should pick up a lot of W's. 

Defense:  Defense is what keeps the best teams at the top, and Marist has it all.  Their backstop is catcher Will Swindling, headed toward the University of San Francisco on a baseball scholarship.  The Spartans have some speed in the outfield and are quick in the infield.  The gap in the quality of defenses in the league has closed and generally, most teams aren't losing games because of bad fielding.  Still some teams are better than others and Marist will be one of the better D's.

All in all, Marist's defense will keep the Spartans in almost every game.  I believe it will be their bats, especially early in the season, that will carry them to the title.

Marist sits out the opening day of MWL league games with a bye.

2.  North Eugene.  The Highlanders should be an automatic number one pick as they return six players who played in the state championship game, including the winning pitcher Andrew Moore.  I'm betting that Moore will come close to running the table in league.  He's just that good at hitting the corners and changing speeds, of which he has a lot of.  In any other year, North's number two pitcher would be good enough to win most of the games that Moore doesn't pitch.  But this isn't just any year because almost every team has an ace who can beat anyone.  It looks like the number two will be either of  the tall lefties, Toby Woods or Big Cat Clayton.  (Moore, Woods and Clayton will return in 2012). Defensively, Kyle DeHaven returns behind the dish.   The Highlander infield is as good as it always is, which is usually the best in the league.  There might be a lack of speed at a spot or two in the outfield, but you won't find these guys making mental mistakes, so they'll be fine in the outfield.

North Eugene opens by hosting Thurston, my #3 pick.  Gonna be a great  league opener.  I'll be there.

3.  Thurston.  I didn't see the Colts in preseason, and they didn't have impressive scores out of Arizona, where the MWL went 9-14 against competition that had a couple of weeks head start on Oregon teams.  I'll base my ranking on who is returning for Thurston and the overall program. 

Tyler Johnson was listed number 30 on Baseball Northwest's Watch List for Oregon players.  His batterymate will be junior Jarren Goddard, ranked number 27 for the class of 2012.  Goddard hammered four dingers in Arizona and TJ added one more.  Sophomore Kyle Watson is ranked number 19 as a pitcher and 1st baseman for the class of 2013.  MWL fans would probably agree with these rankings and agree that the Colt pitching staff is in good hands.

All leaguer Zach Kopczenski, will help anchor down the infield with TJ when TJ isn't on the mound.  Tyler Dumilieu returns as an all-leaguer in the outfield.


I think the Colts bats will be good, but not dominant. Goddard brings the power to the Colts lineup (.413 in league last year). Kopczenski (.326) and TJ (.379) are going to have to be hot in key games if the Colts are going to win the MWL title. Dumilieu (.367) has wheels and will be a pest on the bases.  If the Colts don't find power at the plate, they have the speed to play small ball and everyone's favorite, the hit and run. 

4-7 Alpha order: Sheldon, South Eugene, Springfield, Willamette - Who will improve the fastest?


4.  Sheldon.  Sheldon is loaded with potential.  Where the Irish finish will depend on how fast they come together as a team.  Senior Cason Cunningham will lead the Irish on the mound.  He's had a fine spring so far, including a no hitter in Arizona.    The Irish have at least four players on the BBNW watch list -  Cunningham, Ryan Land, Cooper Stiles, Brett Nielsen.

Sheldon plays Churchill in the league opener. Two young teams in a very important early season game.



5. Springfield. It appears all league MVP Kameron Bates has fully recovered from his injury. Kameron is not only a good pitcher because he throws strikes, but he and Andrew Moore are among the most focused and intense players in the league. The Millers have only played three games so far, so there hasn't been a chance to develop a number two. Malik Evans, ranked number 16 for the class of 2013 by Baseball Northwest, and senior Blaine Dudley have to develop for the Millers to end up in 4th, or even 5th.

Offensivley, Dudley, Bates and senior Ryan Helfrich will likely provide power at the plate. However, the Millers send a lot of new varsity players into the teeth of a lot of good MWL pitchers. Don't expect much out of the Miller bats early in league play.


Springfield travels to South Eugene, my #6 pick, to open league.

6.  South Eugene.  South Eugene features two returning all league players who are also listed very high on Baseball Northwest's Watch list.  Senior Gus Craig is listed as number 7 in the Oregon class of 2011, while Joe Schindler is ranked number 2 in the class of 2013. Senior Carlos Larson and junior outfielder Max Morrison are also on the watch list.  The Axemen are pretty young, but are 3-2 on the season just three days before league starts. 

I'm hoping to see them today, Wednesday, to get more info on the Axemen.

7. Willamette. Willamette has all of the pieces to make a run as high as third.  It's just a question of whether or not this is the year that pitching finally comes through.  The Wolverine MaxPrep roster has 11 pitchers listed, which I assume isn't right, but.....  
There are six seniors on the roster.  You're sure to remember Ryan Concannon Tony Svensson and Matt Erickson.  Willamette was very young last year, which could have hurt their chances of earning all league honors.  But they picked off several all league  spots with frosh and sophs.  Cole Urioste, Scott Kuvaas and Trent Waggoner were all league and have at least one more year after 2011. 

Willamette's bats were up and down in Arizona.  But last year in league, Kuvaas hit .372,  Urioste hit .349 and senior all leaguer Tony Svennson .356.  I'm thinking Waggoner will do well on the mound.  Willamette's D has improved tremendously the last four years.  If the Wolverine's second and third pitchers come through they will place high in the standings.  But I'll let them prove it.

Willamette hosts Marshfield to open league.

8.  Churchill.  Churchill had just three non-seniors last year.  This year they have just three seniors. Do good programs like Churchill really have rebuilding years?  Or are they reloading with a good JV team?  Churchill's football team has reloaded several times after losing good seniors, and I've always ranked them quite high.  It's dangerous ranking Churchill this low, but I doubt they can climb much higher than fifth this year. 

Pitchers Jordan Thompson (soph), junior Jake Lessel (number 20 on BBNW, class of 2012) and Brandon Doerkson have all shown glimpses of brilliance at times in pre-league play.  You and I know the Lancer D will be good.  Good infield play is just built into the Churchill program.  The Lancer bats are mostly new to varsity play in a year with at least one very solid pitcher on each team.  How fast can these young Lancers get up to speed at the plate?  Senior Bryson Jones, junior Chase Kearney and Thompson are also on the BBNW watch list.

9.  Marshfield.  The Pirates are going into the season with no seniors.  Out of nine potentail returnees, only three came back.  But coach Hall, has a solid group of sophomores and juniors and has some hungry and talented frosh.  The best chance of Marsfield ruining another team's RPI ranking will be when sophomore Doug Moltzan is on the mound pitching to Raymond Jones.  Juniors Devon Knowlton and Mason Anderson, sophs Alex Dew, Tyler Johnson, along with Jones and Moltzan will be trying to pull along the hungry, agreesive frosh - Johnny Phillips, Anthony Ross and Drew Jones.

Let me know if you agree or  disagree or want to sneak your name (or son's name) in here for a semi-legitamate reason.  Gary at mwlnow@yahoo.com