Monday, April 25, 2011

First Round Review

  The cold, rainy days of April are almost behind us and the 70 degree days of May are near.  Surprisingly, the MWL got all of their league games in prior to the official start of the second round last Friday.  Of course, Springfield has been a road team the first round as they wait for their facility to dry out.

  At the turn, the teams finshed about where I projected for the end of the season, with the big exception being Sheldon.  I grouped Marist, North Eugene and Thurston as locks for the top three spots.  I had Sheldon, Willamette, Springfield and South Eugene in the next batch.  Churchill just outside of the middle group and Marshfield in a rebuilding year.

  Sheldon's defense was phenomenal the first six games, giving up less than 2 runs per game.  The two big lefties, Cason Cunningham and Brett Nielsen, were six and one in the first round.  The two are a little high on the walk-o-meter, but Cunningham is over 9 k's a game, and Nielsen is sitting down 13 a game.  Sophomore Ryan Land has been impressive in the outfield and at the plate.
  Injuries may end up playing a big part in the finish this year.  North Eugene's lefty Toby Woods pumped up the Highlanders with a 2-0 start and a 1.11 ERA, only to get injured.  The Highlander's fortunes have been slipping since.  Andrew Moore is 3-1, with a .50 ERA and a league leading 46 k's.  But you're going to see more teams get really aggressive like Sheldon did in the first round - attacking the ball early in the count and being willing to take a k here or there in exchange for some very hard hit balls, forcing North to make plays.
  Thurston was a little wobbly coming out of the gate.  The Colts were skunked in their first league game against North, and scored just two runs against Sheldon  in their third game of the first round.  Since then the Colt bats have gotten pretty hot, and their defense has been steady for the most part.  Sophomore Kyle Watson is 4-0 after Friday's round.  Senior Tyler Johnson is getting stronger as the season progresses, and frosh Aaron Clift has been impressive on the mound.  Watson, Johnson, Jarren Goddard, and Joey Urness have been hitting the ball well.  The Colts seem to have momentum going into the second round.
  Marist, my pre-season pick as MWL champions are a half a game out of first.  I thought Spartan pitching would be a smidgen better than it has performed and I thought the bats would be hotter than they have been.  Marist has won by big margins and had some squeakers.  Marist has used  four different starters to get them to within half a game of league leading Sheldon:  Zach Eyster, Kevin Haskins, Alex Torres and Jerry Rouleau.  Eyster has looked very sharp when I've seen him.  The Marist D has had it's bad moments, but can put together great games.  They'll need to be consistent the second half.  Just one homer from the Spartans in the first round.  I expected more.
  I put a lot of pressure on returning MVP Kameron Bates to carry the Millers to a sixth place finish.  Bates is coming off of a fall knee surgery.  He's not quite up to speed, but he performed well the first round. However, the Miller O didn't.  Bates lost a 2-3 game to South and a 2-4 game to Sheldon.  Bates is 1-3 so far. 
  Willamette is about where I projected.   I think their pitching has improved, but obviously not enough for them to make the big jump.  Offensively, Tony Svennson has come off of injured reserve and is making a huge impact on the Wolverines with his bat and presence on the mound.  Getting mileage out of Svennson on the mound would be a bonus.  The Wolverines are relying on Trent Waggoner and his 1.8 ERA for now.  Not having Svennson's bat was certainly a factor in two early losses last round.  Cole Hathaway is having a year at the plate.   The soph has three triples and a dinger.
  South Eugene earns the honor of most injury plagued this year.  Centerfielder Gus Craig has been out. That is a big hurt in the field and at the plate.  Max Morrison, another solid stick for South hurt an elbow tendon and has taken a seat.  There's more, but you get the picture when South is playing three freshmen.
  I cautiously picked Churchill to finish 8th.  They have just three returning players.  But you can always expect the Lancers to play great D, and that will keep you in a lot of games.  Other than getting bombed by South, Churchill has held opponents to five or less in six of their games.  That's good enough to finish in the middle of the pack.  And who knew Bryson Jones would pop four dingers?  I've seen a couple of nice outings by junior Jake Lessel, including the win over Sheldon. 
  Marshfield is regularly playing one junior, five sophs and three frosh.  Given the lopsided losses my alma matre sustained, I was fearful of seeing them play in Eugene.  But when I saw them, and discounted for the youth, I didn't feel as  bad.  kids are trying hard and they all can play.  They just need to hit the weights, play summer ball and work on  pitching.  Sophomore Doug Moulzahn is doing most of the Pirate pitching.  He'll get better, and if he gets some offensive and defensive support, could end up a good one.

  It's been fun getting to know the pitchers from the teams who joined/rejoined the MWL.  Cunningham and Nielsen from Sheldon are fun to watch.  Eyster has had some great stretches.  And South's Joe Schindler has can put it all together.  I hope new to the league Toby Woods gets back off of the injury list.  The oldies, Bates, Moore, Waggoner are very good to great.  Other pitchers I have enjoyed watching are Lessel from South and frosh Aaron Clift from the Colts.  I haven't seen 4-0 Kyle Watson yet this year and haven't seen the Miller's Dudley in a start as well as a host of others.  It will be interesting to see if the pitchers or hitters get stronger in the second round.

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