Looks like I'll take on at least one more season of baseball. A new league website run by others was to be up and running by now, but it hasn't happened yet. So, with a late start, I'll jump into the 2012 season.
Hybrid Prediction:
I'm not sure that there will be full round of 16 games among all 5A and 6A teams, but it will be close enough for me to crown a champion of the unofficial MWL hybrid league.
1. Thurston. In a cakewalk. If the six Thurston all leaguers return with focus, it's a breeze for the Colts. Rumors are that there may be some arm problems on the staff (lots of similar rumors about players throughout the league), but the Colts are so strong at the plate and deep enough in pitching that they could pitch a player every fifth game and have everyone else soaking their arms in an ice pool. Who are these six returning guys? 1st teamers speedster Joey Urness in the OF and DH Aaron Hoover. 2nd teamers Kyle Watson (P) and Stefan Drake (OF). Honorable Mention went to catcher Jarren Goddad and frosh Aaron Clift.
Thurston once again won't need that over the top ace to win league. Last year they pounded the league into submission, and there is no reason why they won't do the same this year. If Colt arms get healthy and the K to BB ratio improves, its just a bonus.
It's been a while since the MWL saw a team with this much potential. But potential is just that, and the Colts wouldn't be the first team with so much going for them to get derailed by the usual - high school broken hearts, injury, stat chasing, infighting, swollen heads, the list goes on.
2-6. Picking the two through six spots is a lot tougher this year, especially if the rumors about injuries hold true. All teams but Marist and Springfield fielded young to very young teams last year. So, almost all teams should be much better just based on a summer of baseball and getting one year older. Add in a plethora of very good returning pitchers and it should be a much better result come playoff time for the MWL. I'm sure I'll miss someone, but returning upper tier pitchers include; Jake Lessel at Churchill (10.7 k's per league game), Beaver-to-be Andrew Moore (11.3 K's per MWL game), Brett Nielsen (10.4 k's per game), and Joe Schindler (8.5 k's per game). Right behind these guys put Thurston's Kyle Watson and Aaron Clift and Willamette's Trent Waggoner. And in the wings with possible very good years are Malik Evans and Toby Woods.
2. Sheldon. One of many very young teams last year. The Irish would be an easier pick for number two, if it weren't for the rumored arm problems with Nielsen. Still, the Irish have one of the better sticks in the league with Cooper Stiles. Nielsen can also drive the ball along with Dylan Lewis. Ryan Land is one of the better defensive center fielders in the state and can be a terror on the bases. Land's outfield play will help the newbie pitchers relax and throw strikes, knowing Land can run down anything. (March 13 Update - I just got an email from Ireland saying Nielsen is looking healthy, so I feel really good about the Irish being number 2. Maybe they can even toss Nielsen against the Colts twice) Note that the Irish and Colts have a 6A counting league game Monday March 19th. I hope to find my way to the posh Mancave atop the Colt dugout for that one.
3. Churchill. I'm going with Churchill for 3rd because North lost some good returnees to various and sundry reasons. Jake Lessel should be one of the premier pitchers in the league. He's got some juice on the ball and has good command. Improving his K to BB ratio just a little will mean a lot to the Lancers. Churchill has other pitchers with experience who should improve this year. Jordan Thompson among them. The Lancers lost some punch at the plate, but might be better off not waiting for the home run swing of graduated Bryson Jones. Chase Kearney, Thompson, Devin Murray and DeZarn all return and should grab a lot of the RBI's.
4. North Eugene. And you ask, "How could you rate the Highlander's #4 with Andrew Moore good for 8 hybridized wins?" For starters, North will be in a bit of a rebuilding mode. They lost four of their top 5 sticks; Boehm, Harpole, DeHaven and Clayton to graduation. Clayton graduated early from North to attend LCC. Add in Eric Long returning to Elmira for his senior year and North's looks almost like a new team. Some of those close first round wins last year might not be wins this year if the Highlander O doesn't find itself.
The Highlander's are hoping pitcher Toby Woods has a lot of good outings early on while the bats develop.
5. South Eugene. I'm going to ride Joe Schindler's arm and bat over Willamette and Marist for 5th. I love watching Schindler pitch. In my mind, I could knock the tar out of him. He just looks so hittable and I keep getting better at the plate as I age. But he walks too few batters and K's far too many batters to be lucky. Schindler will need more support at the plate from his teammates. He might just get it from sophs Jimmy Grossman and Kai Delap. Players usually make pretty big jumps in the year after they've played varsity as frosh. And these two were good last year. Add in Ben Giland, another solid stick, and the Axemen have 'po'.
6. Willamette. The Wolverines are poised to do a lot better than 6th. But, I'll not jinx them. Another of the very young teams last year, the Wolverines just couldn't get their bats going in 2011. Hopefully, last night's 19-0 win says "Things have changed." Juniors Cole Hathaway and Scott Kuvass have started since they were freshmen. They definitely shine in the field and this year they need to shine at the plate. Senior Trent Waggoner looks to be the staff ace this year. He had a nice 2 to 1 ratio in K's to BB's last year. Bump that up to 3:1 or more while keeping the walks minimized and Waggoner can lock in 5 to 7 league wins. Junior Jalen Drath delivered a lot in the clutch last year. Willamette needs even more out of Drath this year.
7. Marist. Basically the Spartans graduated everybody and their coach. Now, that's starting over. I've heard some of the transfer rumors, but I'll wait til I see it on paper. (Oh, by the way, North Eugene did not pick up a stud from back East this year). Bennet Chiongbiong and Austin Baird are the returners for Marist. Hopefully, for me, Baird leaves the infield and goes back to center where he is a natural and belongs with his blazing speed and quickness. As a former pitcher, it was nice knowing that when I threw a gopher ball bound for the far reaches, I knew it was either out or caught, but not a double or triple.
Chiongbiong and Baird both can hit and have speed. But they'll be working with an entire new cast around them and a new coach, former Springfield Miller Scott DeWitt, so who knows?
8. Springfield. The only other team to be clobbered by graduation besides Marist. Soph Taylor Travess and senior Britton Auxier return from last year's roster. Otherwise it's a complete makeover.
9. Marshfield. The Pirates have a lot of potential returnees. Senior catcher/pitcher Raymond Jones. Juniors Doug Molzahn and Tyler Johnson among those with quite a bit of experience.
I'll update my predictions after I see actual rosters and see a few non league games.
Housekeeping:
You can text scores to me at 541-337-1311. I'm a smart phone dummy, but I'll try and Tweet out the scores as I get them.
You can email me photos at mwlnow@yahoo.com.
I have a Facebook page here
And Remember:
When your kid looks at the third strike, don't ask him about it. Everybody at the game saw it and he already doesn't feel good about it.
When your kid balks in a run, don't ask him about it. Everybody at the game saw it and he already doesn't feel good about it.
Etc. Everybody at the game saw it and he already doesn't feel good about it. Parents get to buy their kids Goof Up Slurpees. Just say 'Want a Slurpee?' Coaches get to fix things. (They didn't have Slurpees when I was a kid, I got cherry Kool Aid.... Lot's of it.)
Good Luck to Everyone in 2012!
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