Reminder. As you read this, we have three league's: The 6A SD#1, the 5A MWL and Gary's faux Hybrid MWL league. The Hybrid MWL league isn't a true double round robin as Marshfield is not playing the 6A varsity teams this year.
How's Gary's pre season prediction going?
My final pre Hybrid League prediction versus actual as of Saturday's games:
1. Thurston - Thurston
2. Sheldon - NE/Churchill
3. North Eugene - NE/Churchill
4. South Eugene - South Eugene
5. Churchill - Willamette
6. Willamette - Sheldon
7. Marist - Marist
8. Springfield - Springfield/Marshfield
9. Marshfield - Springfield/Marshfield
Note that Sheldon and Marist are behind a game - the only Hybrid game that didn't get played this rainy spring. Pretty amazing.
Three teams to keep an eye on the second round are Sheldon, Willamette and Marist. (I think the other six teams will continue at the pace they are on and improve as the weather gets better.) The Irish have a ton of talent and have that combination of pitching, hitting, defense and aggressiveness that should put them in a tight race with Thurston. The Wolverines are a team and a program with everything in place to move up to the North Eugene and Churchill level. And Marist has found their defense, no matter who is pitching. Looking at these teams in the context that matters - the official OSAA leagues.....
5A MWL
OSAA Standings
Churchill 4-1
North Eugene 4-1
Willamette 3-2
Marist 2-3
Marshfield 1-4
Springfield 1-4
I'm going to the Marist at Willamette game tonight to see which way these two teams are headed in the second round. I'm anticipating a Trent Waggoner versus Malik Evans showdown. Marist is currently ranked 12th in the 5A Southern Division. The Spartans need wins to avoid dropping below 16th and being eliminated from the play-in games. I put Marist in a rebuilding year mode when I first saw them, but if they continue to improve, they only have to win the last five games of the season once playoffs start and they've got a trophy. Willamette is safe for the play-in game unless they go into a major tailspin. A strong second half could move the Wolverines up from their current ninth place seed in the Southern Region. I like Willamette's lineup from A to Z. From a fan's standpoint, I want to see great games no matter who I'm watching, and hope the Wolverines can take all their skills and deliver consistent top notch play.
North might have to win out against the 5A MWL teams to earn first place in the 5A MWL. Churchill could lose a 5A MWL game and then beat North in the second to last game of league play to own the tie breaker. More importantly, these two teams need to win the majority of their games against all 6A and 5A schools to grab high seeds for the Southern Region play-in games.. North is currently 6th and Churchill 7th in the Southern Division.
6A Special District #1
Unlike 5A, the 6A league standings actually mean a lot. In the 5A level, 4 of 36 teams will not get to play a play in game based on their RPI, no matter where they finish in league. At the 6A, all 43 teams continue to play on, but a team can by pass the play-in games by doing well in district. The top three teams in Special District 1 get an automatic berth into the 32 team bracket.
There are only 7 league games in SD#1, so these guys are about halfway finished.
Thurston 3-0
South Eugene 2-1
Sheldon 2-2
Redmond 1-1
Grant 1-3
Lincoln 0-2
That looks good for the old MWL teams, but Sheldon has to play South Eugene and Thurston again, as well as Redmond. Redmond has two games left with 0-2 Lincoln.... Sheldon and South don't have any 6A action this week, so they'll have to hope that Thurston dumps Lincoln Wednesday and Redmond @ Redmond on Saturday. It'll be interesting to see how the Colts line up their pitching this week against North Eugene, Lincoln and Redmond.
The Colts will be fortunate if they can continue to run the gauntlet through Monday the 30th. Who set up this schedule? North Eugene today. Lincoln twice on Wednesday. Redmond in Redmond on Saturday for two games. South Eugene at home on Monday. I wish we had cable tv for this string of games.
South Eugene has some pitching decisions coming up - at Thurston next Monday, at Sheldon on Wednesday and another 6A away game at Redmond on Saturday. Actually, the Redmond trip is a double header with just the first game counting in league.
The Irish have the least pitching planning to do. They don't have a 6A game before or after the May 2 game against South. If the Irish beat South, they then can choose whether to throw their ace against Thurston on a Tuesday or Redmond on Friday, the last game currently scheduled in the Irish regular season.
But this is baseball and the standings are likely to look way different by the time Sheldon plays Thurston. So I wouldn't put a lot of time worrying about pitching match ups right now. However, it would be fun to see a Watson - Nielsen matchup in Thurston's last 6A league game of the season with a lot on the line.
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