Playoff Time

The weather is getting a lot better and I'd rather be outside than blogging....

I went to South's 22-2 play-in win over Aloha.  South Eugene is ranked number 15 in RPI compared to Aloha's number 42.  Let's just say hats off to the Axemen for staying focused throughout the game.  Sometimes, when everyone is doubling, tripling and homering it's hard to get serious at the plate. One Axemen did fall  asleep late in the game on the basepath, stepping off second to do who knows what, and got tagged out.  South players are pretty smart, though, so maybe the kid had a Math Theory test today - had to get home and study.  Have I ever said that 6A should just go straight to 32 team bracket play with the top 32 RPI's?  Just once or twice..  Teams ranked 26th through 43rd all have losing records.

Did you know?

This 'Did you know' puts the MWL in good shape for the playoffs.  Did you know that at least eight teams have played in the state title game with 10 or 11 losses at the highest two Divisions since 1989 when St. Helens won AA with a 17-11 record?  Near perfect records are by no means a sign of going to the finals.

We have four teams with 9 or 10 losses (Sheldon and North - 10 each, Churchill and Willamette - 9). And Thurston is sitting on 3 losses.  South has 12.  Teams have made it to the finals with 12.  So, don't worry, here's what it takes....

How about a five game streak?

A five game win streak once the playoff's begins, wins it all.  (Six for South because they had a play-in game followed by a 32 team bracket).  Thurston (12) and Sheldon (7) have had some nice streaks.  The last four of Sheldon's streak were after Brett Nielsen broke his hand.  The Irish didn't buckle when their ace went down.  They just found another ace.

Churchill (4), North (3) and Willamette (3), Marist (2) and Springfield (1) will have to have season best streaks.  But remember that the MWL 5A teams had six games against 6A teams once the hybrid action started.  What if our 5A teams had only played 5A teams during regular season?

Bracketogy

6A goes Monday-Wednesday-Friday next week.  While 5A goes just Wednesday-Friday.

First Round                          Win and play
Thurston vs #40 Glencoe.    #18 or South Eugene.
Sheldon  vs #23 Reynolds.  #  6 or 31
South      vs #18 Sunset.      #40 Glencoe or Thurston

That's right.  South and Thurston could meet in the second round.  Sheldon is on the same side of the bracket as Thurston and South, so it won't be an all MWL final.  I like our chances of getting two to the quarterfinals on Friday.

Playinology

Overall RPI's

28 Springfield       # 1 Summit
26 Silverton @      # 3 Bend
24 Marist @         # 5 Ashland
19 Lebanon @      #  6 North Eugene
23 Eagle Point @   # 7 Dallas
16 W Albany @     #  8 Churchill
14 C Valley @       #  9 Willamette    
13 Mt. View @      # 12 Corvallis


33 Cleveland @      #  2 Pendleton
32 Benson @          #  4 Sherwood
31 Franklin @         #10 Putnam
29 Parkrose @       #11 Wilson
25 Milwaukie @      #15 HRV
27 Madison @        #17 Sandy
22 Wilsonville  @    #18 The Dalles
21 Hermiston @      #20 Liberty

The losing team of the games in red will stay home and wonder why at least three teams in the 'Northern Region' which are rated lower than them in the RPI are playing in the first round of bracket play.

Something I wonder about.  If the top nine ranked teams all win, they all advance.  Normally a #8  seed plays a number #9 seed in a 16 team seeded bracket.  That would be Churchill versus Willamette.  PK Park anyone?

This is the time of year, when a hot hand can win it all.  A league that has a lot of good teams with at least one ace and an occasional hot hand at the plate can send one or two all the way with the right breaks.  I like our chances of getting a team through to the finals.  Particularly - Thurston, Sheldon and South in that order.  North and Churchill about even odds to go to the semis or finals and Willamette right behind.  Playing Sheldon, Thurston and South has to have benefitted the 5A group.  All three 5A teams have tough play-in games.  Let's hope they all win and let's hope Willamette and Churchill don't get matched up in the first round of 16.  On the other hand.  Lessel versus Wagner one last time.....